Modeling Zika Risk

Data-driven mathematical modeling of the shared epidemiology of Zika and other arboviruses across the globe

This project, proposed in the wake of the 2015 outbreak of Zika virus in the Americas, seeks to to characterize the global burden of ZIKV infection using mathematical models informed by serology from existing samples collected in eight different countries. A key question in order to predict the potential impact of Zika at a global scale is whether there is or has been endemic circulation, or periodic outbreaks, in these or other locations that has gone undetected. The serum samples, generated from cross-sectional and cohort studies in countries where where a ZIKV outbreak is ongoing (Colombia), where ZIKV has historically been identified (Gabon, Thailand and the Philippines) and where the circulation is completely unknown (Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Kenya, India), are being tested for antibodies against 10 arboviruses using a novel, low-cost, high-throughput, multiplexed serological assay developed by the Institut Pasteur in Paris. The wealth of data generated will allow estimation of key transmission parameters of ZIKV and other arboviruses as well as characterization of the transmission potential of ZIKV and burden for the entire globe.

Principal Investigator

Derek Cummings Professor

Isabel Rodríguez-Barraquer Research Associate, JHSPH

Updates #zika

18 Dec 2019

RT @datcummings: New work from @rkborchering @AngkanaHuang and others from @uf_idd @JHIDDynamics @isabelrodbar suggests #zika outbre… https://t.co/jnJUm5atWi
14 Mar 2019

Check out our latest preprint by @rkborchering and collaborators discussing #Dengue after #Zika… https://t.co/Tp8mk0CiXm
7 Feb 2019

RT @isabelrodbar: Our paper characterizing the #Zika outbreak in Salvador, Bahia is out. We find that prior #dengue immunity provides… https://t.co/aLx9BlwrZJ

Funders

National Science Foundation

Collaborators

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Institut Pasteur

Publications

15 Jun 2017

Genomic epidemiology reveals multiple introductions of Zika virus into the United States.

Grubaugh ND, Ladner JT, Kraemer MUG, Dudas G, Tan AL, Gangavarapu K, Wiley MR, White S, Thézé J, Magnani DM, Prieto K, Reyes D, Bingham AM, Paul LM, Robles-Sikisaka R, Oliveira G, Pronty D, Barcellona CM, Metsky HC, Baniecki ML, Barnes KG, Chak B, Freije CA, Gladden-Young A, Gnirke A, Luo C, MacInnis B, Matranga CB, Park DJ, Qu J, Schaffner SF, Tomkins-Tinch C, West KL, Winnicki SM, Wohl S, Yozwiak NL, Quick J, Fauver JR, Khan K, Brent SE, Reiner RC Jr, Lichtenberger PN, Ricciardi MJ, Bailey VK, Watkins DI, Cone MR, Kopp EW 4th, Hogan KN, Cannons AC, Jean R, Monaghan AJ, Garry RF, Loman NJ, Faria NR, Porcelli MC, Vasquez C, Nagle ER, Cummings DAT, Stanek D, Rambaut A, Sanchez-Lockhart M, Sabeti PC, Gillis LD, Michael SF, Bedford T, Pybus OG, Isern S, Palacios G, Andersen KG.

Nature, 2017: 15(7658): 401-405, 10.1038/nature22400

12 Aug 2016

Assessing the global threat from Zika virus.

Lessler J, Chaisson LH, Kucirka LM, Bi Q, Grantz K, Salje H, Carcelen AC, Ott CT, Sheffield JS, Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Metcalf CJE, Rodriguez-Barraquer I.

Science, 2016: 353(6300): aaf8160, 10.1126/science.aaf8160

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Modeling Zika Risk

Modeling Zika Risk

Principal Investigator

Updates #zika

Funders

Collaborators

Publications