Modeling Zika Risk
This project, proposed in the wake of the 2015 outbreak of Zika virus in the Americas, seeks to to characterize the global burden of ZIKV infection using mathematical models informed by serology from existing samples collected in eight different countries. A key question in order to predict the potential impact of Zika at a global scale is whether there is or has been endemic circulation, or periodic outbreaks, in these or other locations that has gone undetected. The serum samples, generated from cross-sectional and cohort studies in countries where where a ZIKV outbreak is ongoing (Colombia), where ZIKV has historically been identified (Gabon, Thailand and the Philippines) and where the circulation is completely unknown (Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Kenya, India), are being tested for antibodies against 10 arboviruses using a novel, low-cost, high-throughput, multiplexed serological assay developed by the Institut Pasteur in Paris. The wealth of data generated will allow estimation of key transmission parameters of ZIKV and other arboviruses as well as characterization of the transmission potential of ZIKV and burden for the entire globe.