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    • AGED
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    • MIDAS
    • Modeling Zika Risk
    • RCE Vector-Borne Diseases
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  • IMPETUS

IMPETUS

IMPETUS

Improving Methods for Prediction of Epidemic Transmission Using Spatial Surveillance

Surveillance data from large and small spatial scales play an essential role in public health and scientific research, but these data are subject to missing observations, delays in reporting, and observation biases. The IMPETUS study aims to develop novel methods for dealing with bias, missing data and uncertainty in regional, local and point pattern statistics. Dr. Cummings, in collaboration with researchers at Johns Hopkins and UMass Amherst, is working to create statistical and modeling methodologies to correct for biases in surveillance data, impute missing data, predict the course of epidemics, and appropriately characterize the uncertainty in estimates and predictions at relevant spatial scales. Methods will be tested and validated using surveillance data of dengue transmission in Thailand, but should be applicable to a wide variety of diseases and contexts.

Principal Investigator

Justin Lessler Associate Professor, JHSPH

Funders

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease

Collaborators

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
University of Massachusetts Amherst
Thailand Ministry of Public Health

Publications

Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand.
Reich NG, Lauer SA, Sakrejda K, Iamsirithaworn S, Hinjoy S, Suangtho P, Suthachana S, Clapham HE, Salje H, Cummings DA, Lessler J.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2016: 10: e0004761, 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004761
Measuring Spatial Dependence for Infectious Disease Epidemiology.
Lessler J, Salje H, Grabowski MK, Cummings DA.
PLoS One, 2016: 11: e0155249, 10.1371/journal.pone.0155249
Dengue Virus DENV Neutralizing Antibody Kinetics in Children After Symptomatic Primary and Postprimary DENV Infection.
Clapham HE, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Azman AS, Althouse BM, Salje H, Gibbons RV, Rothman AL, Jarman RG, Nisalak A, Thaisomboonsuk B, Kalayanarooj S, Nimmannitya S, Vaughn DW, Green S, Yoon IK, Cummings DA.
J Infect Dis, 2016: 213: 1428-35, 10.1093/infdis/jiv759
Reconstruction of 60 Years of Chikungunya Epidemiology in the Philippines Demonstrates Episodic and Focal Transmission.
Salje H, Cauchemez S, Alera MT, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Thaisomboonsuk B, Srikiatkhachorn A, Lago CB, Villa D, Klungthong C, Tac-An IA, Fernandez S, Velasco JM, Roque VG Jr, Nisalak A, Macareo LR, Levy JW, Cummings D, Yoon IK.
J Infect Dis, 2016: 213: 604-10, 10.1093/infdis/jiv470
Region-wide synchrony and traveling waves of dengue across eight countries in Southeast Asia.
van Panhuis WG, Choisy M, Xiong X, Chok NS, Akarasewi P, Iamsirithaworn S, Lam SK, Chong CK, Lam FC, Phommasak B, Vongphrachanh P, Bouaphanh K, Rekol H, Hien NT, Thai PQ, Duong TN, Chuang JH, Liu YL, Ng LC, Shi Y, Tayag EA, Roque VG Jr, et al.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2015: 112: 13069-74, 10.1073/pnas.1501375112
Reduced vaccination and the risk of measles and other childhood infections post-Ebola.
Takahashi S, Metcalf CJ, Ferrari MJ, Moss WJ, Truelove SA, Tatem AJ, Grenfell BT, Lessler J.
Science, 2015: 347: 1240-2, 10.1126/science.aaa3438
The spatial dynamics of dengue virus in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand.
Bhoomiboonchoo P, Gibbons RV, Huang A, Yoon IK, Buddhari D, Nisalak A, Chansatiporn N, Thipayamongkolgul M, Kalanarooj S, Endy T, Rothman AL, Srikiatkhachorn A, Green S, Mammen MP, Cummings DA, Salje H.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2014: 8: e3138, 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003138
A shorter time interval between first and second dengue infections is associated with protection from clinical illness in a school-based cohort in Thailand.
Anderson KB, Gibbons RV, Cummings DA, Nisalak A, Green S, Libraty DH, Jarman RG, Srikiatkhachorn A, Mammen MP, Darunee B, Yoon IK, Endy TP.
J Infect Dis, 2014: 209: 360-8, 10.1093/infdis/jit436

Contact

Tel: +1 352-273-6555

Email: info [at] ufiddynamics.org

Infectious Disease Dynamics Group
c/o Derek Cummings
University of Florida
Department of Biology
P.O. Box 118525
Gainesville, FL 32611

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